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Live on the US East coast, Southern Europe, or west Africa? [message #107228] Wed, 11 August 2004 20:47 Go to previous messageGo to previous message
warranto is currently offline  warranto
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Registered: February 2003
Location: Alberta, Canada
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flyingfox

You see this crap all the time, actually. "scares" reported by scientists to make you think bad things are going to happen. don't be fooled into thinking your children are going to snuff it. For those of you who read the article, take note of the key words.

Quote:

tens of millions of people along the eastern seaboard of the United States and Canada may drown if the slow slippage of a volcano off north Africa becomes a cataclysmic collapse.


Quote:

Scientist Bill McGuire told a news conference on natural disasters on Monday that sometime in the next few thousand years the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano...


Quote:

He said the slow collapse — started by an eruption in 1949 — would almost certainly be turned catastrophic by another eruption of the volcano, which erupts every 25 to 200 years.


What it is doing is using words selectively in a manner that'll scare you enough to overlook the bigger picture. A quick search on the volcano its-self turned up this amusing piece of evidence to suggest there won't be such a catastrophe for us after all.

Quote:

Abstract.
Geological evidence suggests that during a future eruption, Cumbre Vieja Volcano on the island of La Palma may experience a catastrophic failure of its west flank, dropping 150 to 500km³ of rock into the sea. Using a geologically reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami waves produced by such a collapse. Waves generated by the run-out of a 500km³ (150km³) slide block at 100 m/s could transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the Americas with 10-25m (3-8 m) height.


Reading through the rest of that report, it talks again of the "up to 25m in height" but avoids the fact that this is the equivelant to 3-8 metres height by normal. So a huge chunk of rock'll fall, and some waves will have a nice little surf over the water.

Yea, better bring an umbrella.. that shit's gonna get nasty.


You're right! Of course when you decide to spread misinformation about these things, it's easy to make yourself look good right?

Look at that article again. The Abstract is a very brief, but detailed explination of the whole (which I read). Notice the number in brackets?

500km³ (150km³) and 10-25m (3-8 m) <-- these ones.

notice how the number in brackets for both is proportionatly smaller? Thats because they're related. If a large 500km cubed pice falls off, the waves will hit at about 10-25m high. If the piece is the smaller 150km cubed one, the waves will only reach 3.8m high.

Go for reporting misinformation!

Link for the .pdf file:

http://www.es.ucsc.edu/~ward/papers/La_Palma_grl.pdf

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